2024 Presidential Election
Election predictions were last updated on September 16th.
There are days left until the election on November 5, 2024.
I've modeled a range of possible outcomes for the electoral college, taking into account election history and various other factors to quantify polling error. This data-driven approach and my own commentary along the way aims to provide a comprehensive perspective on the unfolding political landscape.
The first graph below offers a view of 4,000 simulated outcomes, highlighting the likelihood of electoral college totals for the top contenders of the Democratic and Republican parties.