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Election Predictions Articles About


2024 Presidential Election

There are days left until the election on November 5, 2024.

I've modeled a range of possible outcomes for the electoral college, taking into account election history and various other factors to quantify polling error. This data-driven approach and my own commentary along the way aims to provide a comprehensive perspective on the unfolding political landscape.

The first graph below offers a view of 4,000 simulated outcomes, highlighting the likelihood of electoral college totals for the top contenders of the Democratic and Republican parties.



Pick a State

See the potential vote margins and each state's election history. Each state is shaded according to it's probability of victory for either party.


Note that the Nebraska and Maine results shown are state-wide and there is no further breakdown to territorial electoral votes.